Yossi Beilin

PublishedApril 02nd 2014

        

Kerry, come back to reality

The treetop is, in many cases, the right place to be in. But one has to be willing to do whatever it takes in order to keep the ladder at hand, in case one might suddenly need to climb down. In the beginning of his tenure President Barack Obama demanded that Israel freeze construction in the settlements so that negotiations for a permanent peace deal with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas could start. He was right. It is slightly odd to agree in principle to a two-state solution, including a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, while at the same time intensifying construction in the Jewish settlements. The problem was that Obama could not, or would not, force a construction freeze on Israel.

Israel, ultimately, did agree to a partial and utterly ridiculous freeze (while "compensating" the settlements all along for the 2010 freeze by secretly allocating special budgetary funds for additional construction), and the negotiations were not renewed. Abbas claimed the US forced him to go out on a limb by demanding the construction freeze, the reason for which it was not possible for him to renew the talks without a full freeze in advance. Eight months ago Abbas agreed to renew the talks in exchange for Palestinian prisoners' release, but the direct negotiations halted shortly after amid Israel's inability to counter the Palestinian proposal with a proposal of its own.

US Secretary of State John Kerry, who is making every possible effort to renew the talks and who, during the last few months, had to give up his original vision for a permanent deal, will dedicate the weeks left until the month of May for the prevention of a complete collapse of the talks and for presenting a new agreement to extend negotiations until the end of 2014. He might succeed. Neither side wants to appear responsible for the collapse of the talks in the eyes of the Americans and the world in general. Hence, it is highly likely that, with some more prisoners and a partial unofficial construction freeze, Abbas might be persuaded to continue the talks (after all, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to continue the talks in the years to come. It is Abbas who is afraid to be seen as the one providing the legitimacy for Israel to expand the settlements amid his reluctance, thus far, to sue Israelis in the International Criminal Court).

But the real question is how to prevent the collapse of the talks at the end of the year, and how to return to high-level negotiations in order to achieve preliminary results as soon as possible. This can be achieved if Kerry would give up the notion of a permanent deal, the same way the Americans had to give up the notion of a construction freeze. If Kerry is not willing to go out on a limb, the chances of him harming his own interests while plunging the region into a vortex of tension and possible violence are indeed great.

Netanyahu might want peace, but he is not willing to pay the price for it. Abbas is ready for peace, but he is not able to lead Hamas to water, let alone make it drink. The first stage for a historic permanent deal should have begun with the West Bank alone. Since this is not practical, the path for a permanent deal needs to be a gradual one, which is guided by the last decade's "road map": An immediate establishment of a Palestinian state inside temporary borders, and the beginning of negotiations in which both governments agree in advance on a timetable for reaching a permanent deal, and with the US providing the vision as to the outlines of the agreement.

Kerry will have to double his efforts, go to Ramallah and hear from Abbas himself what his non-negotiable issues are in order to reach a much-dreaded interim deal (Abbas' greatest fear is that an interim deal will turn out to be a permanent deal in the end). Kerry will have then to go back to Netanyahu with the clarifications and convince him to agree to at least some of Abbas' demands in order to reach an interim deal by the end of the year.

Kerry's role will change, as well. He will not have to come up with the solutions for each and every issue on the agenda, but instead convince Abbas that he is better off with a partial solution while at the same time convincing Netanyahu to accept some of Abbas' demands. Kerry will then have to help the sides decide on the exact location of temporary borders, the future of the settlements, and details on temporary security arrangements – all this without even suggesting practical solutions for the issues of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees. This is not Kerry's life dream, but it is a better alternative to the failure of the talks.

Yossi Beilin is president of the business consulting firm Beilink. In the past he served as a minister in three Israeli governments and as a Member of Knesset for Labor and Meretz. He was one of the pioneers of the Oslo Accords, the Geneva Initiative and Birthright.